1. 決算ハイライト・バリュエーション・投資ストーリー
この銘柄は外部入力（*_chatgpt-output.md / references/*.md）が未提供のため、標準文面を表示しています。
直近実績 (2026Q2)
月額会員数
4.1万人
前四半期比 +8.9%
限界利益
769百万円
前四半期比 +13.4%
営業利益率
-11.8%
前四半期比 -5.0pt
- 投資判断: 様子見
- 利用状態: 参考利用可。注意点あり
- 推奨行動: 主要数値の出所情報を補完した更新版で再判定するまで、自動執行を止めます。
- 標準目標株価: ¥279.81（現在比 +15.6%）
バリュエーション手法選定
主要手法: EV/S
0.5〜0.7倍広告投資と倉庫費で営業利益が歪むため、まず 売上-based 評価 で 需要の持続性 を測り…
クロスチェック: なし
0.0倍主手法の前提と異なる角度で、目標株価の前提整合を確認します。
投資ストーリー要約
背景: エアークローゼットは月額制のファッションレンタル『airCloset』を中核に、Mall、Dress、Salon、つながり などの周辺サービスを束ねる循環型サブスク企業です。
収益構造: 売上の中心は月額会員からのサブスク収入で、販売売上、B2B物流・再商品化の つながり 受託、Mall / Spot / Store などの周辺サービスが補完します。
今回の変化: 月額会員数は4.1万人（前四半期比 +8.9%）、限界利益は769百万円（前四半期比 +13.4%）、営業利益率は-11.8%（前四半期比 -5.0pt）。
今回の論点: 今回の判断では 収益性: 営業利益率は前四半期の -6.8% から -11.8% へ -5.0pt 悪化しました。売上の伸びが利益に十分残っていません を重く見ています。
次四半期の確認: 月額会員数・限界利益・営業利益率が続くかを見ます。
株式会社エアークローゼットの月額会員数: 月額会員数は前四半期比で+8.9%。マイナス。利益率の悪化が判断の重しです。（確認指標: 月額会員数）
株式会社エアークローゼットの限界利益: 限界利益は前四半期比で+13.4%。上値余地はあるものの、買い基準には届いていません。（確認指標: 限界利益）
営業利益率: 営業利益率は前四半期比で-5.0pt。中立。いまの水準が続くかを確認します。（確認指標: 営業利益率）
2. 決算背景・因果チェーン・KPI定義（詳細表示/非表示）
決算数値 / 会社ガイダンス / 市場予想の対応
グラフは canonical data、補足の原表は chatgpt-output.md を参照します。
A. 直近決算
実績 vs 市場予想 vs 事前ガイダンス
売上高と EPS を優先表示し、背景カードの「市場予想比 / ガイダンス比」と同じ比較軸で読みます。
売上高 / EPS の比較カードを作るための直近データが不足しています。
B. 次の会社ガイダンス
会社ガイダンス vs 市場予想
表示期間: 2026FY
次四半期、当期通期、翌期通期の順で探しましたが、表示可能な会社ガイダンス比較がありません。
詳細数値を開く
A. 直近決算の詳細数値
実績 / 市場予想 / 事前ガイダンスの canonical data をそのまま表示します。
| metric | actual | consensus | guide | delta_consensus | delta_guide | interpretation | availability_state | availability_reason | source_loaded_state | row_completeness_state | is_optional_metric | row_id | canonical_origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 売上高 | ¥1371 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | コンセンサス未取得のため比較不可です。理由: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | partial | 直近実績はあるものの、比較対象の一部が未取得です。 | missing | partial | False | latest:売上高 | latest_quarter_comparison |
| 営業利益 | ¥-162 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | コンセンサス未取得のため比較不可です。理由: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | partial | 直近実績はあるものの、比較対象の一部が未取得です。 | missing | partial | False | latest:営業利益 | latest_quarter_comparison |
| 営業利益率 | -11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | コンセンサス未取得のため比較不可です。理由: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | partial | 直近実績はあるものの、比較対象の一部が未取得です。 | missing | partial | False | latest:営業利益率 | latest_quarter_comparison |
| EPS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | コンセンサス未取得のため比較不可です。理由: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | unavailable | 直近実績自体が未取得です。 | missing | missing | False | latest:EPS | latest_quarter_comparison |
| FCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | コンセンサス未取得のため比較不可です。理由: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | unavailable | 直近実績自体が未取得です。 | missing | missing | True | latest:FCF | latest_quarter_comparison |
B. 次の会社ガイダンスの詳細数値
会社ガイダンスと市場予想の canonical data をそのまま表示します。
| row_id | period | metric | guide | consensus | internal_base_case | delta_pct | note | source_summary | estimate_date | availability_state | availability_reason | source_loaded_state | row_completeness_state | guide_supported_state | guide_supported_missing_metrics | freshness_note | canonical_origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| forward:2026Q3:revenue | 2026Q3 | 売上高 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | unavailable | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | loaded | insufficient | False | [] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026Q3:operating_income | 2026Q3 | 営業利益 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | unavailable | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | loaded | insufficient | False | [] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026Q3:operating_margin_pct | 2026Q3 | 営業利益率 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | unavailable | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | loaded | insufficient | False | [] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026Q3:eps | 2026Q3 | EPS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | unavailable | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | loaded | insufficient | False | [] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026Q3:fcf | 2026Q3 | FCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | sample data には FCF の市場予想がないため、ここは未開示です。 | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | unavailable | A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible free public analyst-consensus rows for 9557. The IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page showed an empty consensus section, and public pages exposed company guidance and quote data but not a structured latest-quarter or full-year street-consensus set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain N/A. | loaded | insufficient | False | [] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026FY:revenue | 2026FY | 売上高 | ¥5716 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | available | 市場予想は未取得ですが、会社見通しの中核項目は揃っています。 | loaded | complete | True | ['revenue_consensus', 'operating_income_consensus', 'operating_margin_consensus', 'eps_consensus'] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026FY:operating_income | 2026FY | 営業利益 | ¥81 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | available | 市場予想は未取得ですが、会社見通しの中核項目は揃っています。 | loaded | complete | True | ['revenue_consensus', 'operating_income_consensus', 'operating_margin_consensus', 'eps_consensus'] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026FY:operating_margin_pct | 2026FY | 営業利益率 | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | available | 市場予想は未取得ですが、会社見通しの中核項目は揃っています。 | loaded | complete | True | ['revenue_consensus', 'operating_income_consensus', 'operating_margin_consensus', 'eps_consensus'] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026FY:eps | 2026FY | EPS | 5.10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | available | 市場予想は未取得ですが、会社見通しの中核項目は揃っています。 | loaded | complete | True | ['revenue_consensus', 'operating_income_consensus', 'operating_margin_consensus', 'eps_consensus'] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
| forward:2026FY:fcf | 2026FY | FCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | sample data には FCF の市場予想がないため、ここは未開示です。 | 先行き予想ソース: 補足推定 | 推定日: 2026-03-23 | 取得時刻: 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00 | 取得状況: 未取得 | 補足: A 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-23 JST refresh did not identify reproducible フリー 公開 analyst-市場予想 rows で 9557. IFIS / 株予報Pro analyst page では an empty 市場予想 section, と 公開ページ exposed company guidance と quote data but not a structured 最新-四半期 または full-year street-市場予想 set. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) confirmed undisclosed fields remain 未開示. | 2026-03-23 | available | 市場予想は未取得ですが、会社見通しの中核項目は揃っています。 | loaded | complete | True | ['revenue_consensus', 'operating_income_consensus', 'operating_margin_consensus', 'eps_consensus'] | Consensus rows were refreshed on 2026-03-23 JST. Official FY2026 company guidance and Yahoo! Finance Japan quote data were confirmed, but IFIS / 株予報Pro still showed a blank analyst-consensus section and no reproducible free public street rows were found. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance on 2026-03-25. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-26 16:40 JST) on 2026-03-26T16:40:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-03-27 22:29 JST) on 2026-03-27T22:29:00+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:07:15+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T11:11:36+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:25+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-30T21:00:35+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (past price table) on 2026-03-31T14:22:10+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-01 price table) on 2026-04-01T14:58:13+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-02 price table) on 2026-04-02T09:46:04+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-05 price table) on 2026-04-05T19:59:08+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-08 price table) on 2026-04-08T14:28:26+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-09 price table) on 2026-04-09T22:19:16+09:00. Primary-source recheck (2026-04-09) kept undisclosed metrics as N/A under strict policy. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-10 current prices) on 2026-04-10T15:36:57+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-13 latest prices) on 2026-04-13T10:18:52+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-14 latest prices) on 2026-04-14T09:55:14+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-16 latest prices) on 2026-04-16T23:32:03+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Google Finance (filled from N/A on 2026-04-19) on 2026-04-19T20:38:18+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-21 latest prices) on 2026-04-21T19:26:37+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices) on 2026-04-23T09:47:02+09:00. Current price was refreshed from Manual input (2026-04-23 latest prices; N/A supplemented) on 2026-04-23T09:49:39+09:00. | guidance_and_consensus |
元レポート 1-1 四半期表
実績・ガイダンス・市場予想の原表です。
元データ表が不足しているため表示できません。
元レポート 1-2 年次表
年次 actual / guide / consensus の原表です。
元データ表が不足しているため表示できません。
乖離とセグメントの背景
この会社は何の会社か: エアークローゼットは月額制のファッションレンタル『airCloset』を中核に、Mall、Dress、Salon、つながり などの周辺サービスを束ねる循環型サブスク企業です。
どう稼ぐ会社か: 売上の中心は月額会員からのサブスク収入で、販売売上、B2B物流・再商品化の つながり 受託、Mall / Spot / Store などの周辺サービスが補完します。
今回の判断で重視した論点: 今回の判断では 収益性: 営業利益率は前四半期の -6.8% から -11.8% へ -5.0pt 悪化しました。売上の伸びが利益に十分残っていません を重く見ています。
因果チェーンと主要KPI
前四半期比 -5.0pt。マイナス。利益率の悪化が判断の重しです。
買い・様子見・売りの境界に対する現在位置です。。上値余地はあるものの、買い基準には届いていません。
前回比の詳細は定点観測パックで確認してください。。中立。いまの水準が続くかを確認します。
| KPI名 | なぜ重要か | 目安(閾値) |
|---|---|---|
| 月額会員数 | エアークローゼットでは売上成長の起点が会員基盤であり、会員数が伸びないと広告投資も unit economics も正しく評価できないためです。 | 月額会員数が40,000人前後を維持し、前年同期比でプラスを保つこと |
| 限界利益 | 売上だけでは広告積み増し局面の質が見えにくく、限界利益が伸びているかで unit economics の毀損有無を判断しやすいためです。 | 限界利益が前年同期比でプラスを保ち、需要期では700百万円前後を超えること |
| 営業利益率 | エアークローゼットの再評価は売上成長だけでなく、限界利益が最終的に営業利益へ戻るかで決まりやすいからです。 | 営業利益率が投資期でも-15%を大きく下回らず、H2で改善方向へ戻ること |
| 調整後EBITDA | 銀行借入と成長投資を抱える会社では、会計利益だけでなく 現金-like earning 電力 の底がどこにあるかを見る必要があるためです。 | 調整後EBITDAが需要期で150百万円超、投資局面でも大幅悪化が続かないこと |
投資判断: 様子見 / 利用状態: 参考利用可。注意点あり
標準目標株価: ¥279.81（現在比 +15.6%）
3. 業績推移と予測ダッシュボード (チャート)
連結 売上高・営業利益・利益率・YoY (四半期)
横スクロールで直近実績の推移を確認できます。
連結 売上高・営業利益・利益率・YoY (年次)
年次実績の伸びと収益性の整合を確認します。
連結年次データが不足しているため表示できません。
セグメント別 売上高推移 (四半期)
添付レポートにある四半期実績のみを表示しています。
セグメント別 営業利益推移 (四半期)
会社定義セグメント利益ベースの四半期実績のみを表示しています。
セグメント別 売上・営業利益推移 (年次)
添付レポートの年次実績をそのまま確認します。
連結YoYに対するセグメント別寄与度
どの事業が連結成長を押し上げ、どの事業が逆風かを確認します。
主要KPI推移 (四半期)
因果チェーンと主要KPIで定義した指標を対象に、取得済み系列は時系列で、未取得系列は注記で確認します。
表示対象KPI: 月額会員数 / 限界利益 / 営業利益率 / 調整後EBITDA
時系列表示中: 月額会員数 / 限界利益 / 営業利益率 / 調整後EBITDA
4. 妥当性検証・目標株価シナリオ
要素分解（発生確率 × 価格影響度のネット期待値）
外部レポートの 5-1 表がないため、この要素分解は repo 内評価モデルの factor rows を表示しています。ユーザー入力の表をそのまま再現したものではありません。
問題: 先行き予想の行が一部不足
影響: 通常利用の条件を満たしていないため、結論は参考利用にとどめます。
対応: 次四半期の需要、会社見通し、増設進捗を補完できたら通常利用へ戻します。
シナリオ比較
外部レポートの 5-4 表がないため、このシナリオ比較は repo 内評価モデルから再構成しています。ユーザー入力の表の逐語再現ではありません。
| シナリオ | 目標株価 | 現在株価差 | 達成確率 | 達成時期 | 主要KPI閾値 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 標準 | ¥279.81 | +15.6% | 55.0% | 13か月後 (2027/05) | 広告費率が 16% 前後 |
| 強気 | ¥474.97 | +96.3% | 22.0% | 16か月後 (2027/08) | 広告費率が 15% |
| 弱気 | ¥140.82 | -41.8% | 23.0% | 7か月後 (2026/11) | 広告費率が 20%近辺で高止まりすること / 営業利益率 -0.4% |
強気: 会員純増と広告効率の改善が同時に進み、45,000人超えと黒字回復が市場に早めに織り込まれるケースです。
崩れる条件: 会員基盤は増えても広告効率と unit economics が改善せず、投資回収ストーリーが成立しない場合。
標準: 会員基盤は維持され、2027年度 にかけて広告費率は正常化するが、利益回復の確認には時間がかかる中心ケースです。
崩れる条件: 会員数は増えても広告効率と利益率が回復せず、投資先行の説明が長引きすぎる場合。
弱気: 会員純増と広告効率の両方が弱く、回収より財務懸念が先に強まる stress case です。
崩れる条件: 需要と限界利益が予想より早く持ち直し、資金繰り懸念が後退する場合。
5. 詳細データテーブル (全生データ・予測前提含む)
提示された全数値を網羅しています。未開示項目は N/A のまま保持し、元レポートの実績表・予測表を section 5 に再掲しています。
詳細データテーブルの元ソースが不足しているため表示できません。